A slight decline in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter of 2013 PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 03 February 2014 15:24
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The Consumer Confidence Index fell by 0.6 index point to 98.0 in the fourth quarter of 2013. Overall, the year ends with a lower index than it started with (see Chart 1).

On the other hand, the index is 0.3 index point higher than the same period of the previous year. The Present Situation Index positively affected the Consumer Confidence Index, while the Expectation Index had a negative impact in the fourth quarter of 2013 (Table 1).

Consumers’ perceptions on their present personal financial situation improved, as 14.8 percent of respondents revealed that their personal financial situation had worsened, compared to 19.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013. This same development is seen at both the present business and economic conditions (where 21.8 percent of the respondents indicated deterioration in the fourth quarter versus 26.8 percent in the third quarter) and the government’s financial position (28.5 percent pointed out a worsening in the fourth quarter versus 29.3 percent in the third quarter).

Consumers tended to be more on a neutral level with regard to future expectations, as they indicated that their personal financial situation, the business and economic conditions, as well as the government’s financial position will stay the same in the near future. On the other hand, consumers’ outlook on the labor market in the present situation was more pessimistic in the fourth quarter than the third quarter of 2013. Finally, consumers reported that it was not prudent to purchase a car (60.3 percent), some major appliances (47.8 percent) or to go on vacation (39.5 percent).

You can download the complete presentation of the results of this survey from the CBA’s website. For further information, please contact Mr. Jonathan Upegui, Economist at the Research Department, at telephone 5252215 or email j.upegui@cbaruba.org.
The index can vary between 90 and 110. Between 90 and 100 indicates a situation of pessimism. An index of exactly 100 indicates that consumers are neither pessimistic nor optimistic, but are neutral in regards to their thoughts about economic developments in Aruba. Between 100 and 110 indicates a situation of optimism in consumer sentiments.
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